Reports of the stock rally's demise have been greatly exaggerated,
with September so far managing to eschew a much-predicted selloff. A
torrent of economic news this week could turn the tide.
On the
economic front, the consumer will remain front and center: Reports are
due on inflation, retail sales, housing and jobless claims. These
reports are key as investors look for signs that the consumer -- hit by
rising joblessness, lost wealth and tighter credit -- is starting to
recover.
Consumer spending fuels two-thirds of economic growth.
Government stimulus and a period of inventory building are expected to
help the economy for the next few quarters, but experts say the U.S. is
at risk for a double-dip recession by this time next year if spending
doesn't return.
"The week is likely to be a competition between
better economic news for August and the start of the quarterly
pre-announcement period," said John Canally, Economist at LPL
Financial.
Investors will also keep an eye this week on the dollar,
which is sitting near a one-year low versus the euro and nine-month low
against the yen. The falling dollar has helped push the price of gold
to a record high of $1006.50. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are back around $69 a barrel.
The
news this week will also compete for investor focus with the one-year
anniversary of one of the grimmest periods in Wall Street history: the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
One-year later:
Last September, the collapse of Lehman and shotgun wedding buyout of
Merrill Lynch by Bank of America turned a recession into a full-blown
economic crisis on a level not seen since the 1930s.
Through
extraordinary efforts on the part of the U.S. government and central
bankers and financial ministers around the world, a so-called second
Great Depression was avoided.
Relief that the crisis was
contained -- combined with massive amounts of fiscal and monetary
stimulus -- have enabled stocks to recover over the past six months.
Since
bottoming in March at 12-year lows, the S&P 500 has rallied 54% and
the Dow 47%. The Nasdaq bottomed at a six-year low and has gained 64%.