Daily News Inc | Next 18 months in Afghanistan 'critical,' U.S. commander tells House panel

The top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan told the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday the next 18 months will be "critical" in the war in that country, as a new influx of U.S. troops is sent to join the fight.

"I believe the next 18 months are critical, especially in the eyes of the Afghan people and the insurgency. I believe for these 18 months we're going to make tremendous progress ... while we simultaneously grow the Afghan capacity to provide for long-term security," Gen. Stanley McChrystal said.

In August, the general had cautioned that a failure to reverse momentum of the Taliban insurgency and gain the initiative in Afghanistan within 12 months could make defeating the insurgents impossible.

But his testimony Tuesday lengthened that timeline.

"The sober fact is that there are no silver bullets," he said. "Ultimate success will be the cumulative effect of sustained pressure."

The general testified before the committee with U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry. The appearance of the two men comes one week after President Obama announced the United States will add 30,000 more troops to the effort in Afghanistan.

McChrystal said he "participated fully in the president's assessment and decision-making process" and he fully supports Obama's decision.

Eikenberry, whose leaked cables to Washington indicated that he opposed sending large numbers of troops to the conflict, denied Tuesday that he was ever against dispatching more forces.

"I fully concur with General McChrystal's assessment that the security situation remains serious. Sending additional U.S. and NATO ISAF forces to Afghanistan is absolutely critical to regain the initiative, and I am confident as these troops arrive, the situation will stabilize and turn in our favor," the ambassador said. ISAF is NATO's International Security Assistance Force.

His initial questions, Eikenberry said, were about the number of troops, the timeline for those troops, and the context in which those troops would operate.

"The mission was refined, the ways forward were clarified, and the resources now have been committed to allow us to achieve the refined mission," he said. "With that, at this point in time ... I am unequivocally in support of this mission and I am exactly aligned with General McChrystal in moving forward now to vigorously implement the assigned mission."

Both Eikenberry and McChrystal went out of their way to minimize the differences in their views after reports of an Eikenberry cable advising the president that McChrystal's plans to send more troops would be ill- advised because of a lack of confidence in the Karzai government. In their opening statements, both said they were honored to testify together and each called the other a friend.

The sober fact is that there are no silver bullets. Ultimate success will be the cumulative effect of sustained pressure.
--Gen. Stanley McChrystal

But more of those differences were seen when the men gave their predictions about the final outcome of the war.

"I believe we will absolutely be successful," McChrystal responded when the committee chairman, Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Missouri, asked the general point-blank about the chances for success of the U.S. mission.

Earlier, in his opening remarks, the general had said, "The mission is not only important, it is also achievable. We can and will accomplish this mission."

Eikenberry was more cautious, saying that "success is not guaranteed but it is possible."

In his December 1 announcement of the surge, Obama also said his strategy includes plans to begin withdrawing the additional forces as soon as July 2011.

But McChrystal emphasized that the date was only a marker in the broader picture, and not a "major factor" in his military strategy.

"I don't view July 2011 as a deadline. I don't believe it is a deadline at all," he told lawmakers, later adding that he assumed a U.S. troop withdrawal would begin at that time.

"It is a solid decision the president has made and I operate under the assumption that we will begin to decrease our forces beginning in July 2011," the general said.

McChrystal said that the influx of additional troops should bring "significant progress" in the war by next summer, and by December 2010 he should be able to "lay out progress" and show evidence of success in a report he will present.

"By summer of 2011 it will be clear to the Afghan people," the general added.

"We're about to put 30,000 more Americans and additional coalition forces and go hard at this insurgency over the next 18 months. ... My expectation is the insurgency will be less robust in the summer of 2011, significantly so, and it is also my expectation that the Afghan security forces will be more robust," McChrystal said. "I see confidently in the summer of 2011 that beginning the reduction of forces will be appropriate, the pace and scope of which needs to be conditions-based on how strong is insurgency at that point."

Other goals in the U.S. mission, the general said, include defeating al Qaeda and disrupting and degrading the capacity of the Taliban.

"Rolling back the Taliban is a prerequisite to the ultimate defeat of al Qaeda," McChrystal said. "I believe al Qaeda both as an organization and an ideology needs to be defeated.

"In terms of Taliban ... I think what we're doing is preventing the Taliban from being an existential threat to the government of Afghanistan, and thus to the Afghan people. So rather than wipe out every Taliban member, what we need to do is lower their capacity to the point where -- within their own means -- Afghanistan can hold them from being a major threat to either their way of life or their government.

"I think that, over time, that will cause the Taliban to go away, to become irrelevant, and cease to exist," he explained.

At present, 68,000 U.S. troops are operating under both NATO and U.S. commands in Afghanistan, and around 42,000 non-U.S. forces are under NATO. The Pentagon announced 1,500 more Marines would be deploying this month as part of the new strategy.

Last week, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that Britain, Italy, Poland, Slovakia and non-NATO member Georgia are among at least 25 countries offering to send a total of 7,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.