They've rallied, made T-shirts and have donned all-orange in support of their favorite late-night host.
But
while Team Coco has unwaveringly stood by Conan O'Brien during the
recent days of his stint as host of "The Tonight Show," it wasn't
enough to keep O'Brien on NBC.
O'Brien's last day on air -- after seven months -- was Friday, and it'll be nothing but "Tonight Show" repeats and
the 2010 Winter Olympics until Jay Leno once again takes a seat at the
desk on March 1. O'Brien won't be showing his red mop on another show
again until September 2 at the earliest. That is a long stretch of time
for a business known for having a short-term memory.
The
chances that much of Team Coco will stick around for the long,
Conan-less haul are pretty slim, said Josh Bernoff, senior vice
president at Forrester Research and co-author of "Groundswell: Winning
in a World Transformed by Social Technologies."
"These social
explosions, or groundswells; they're very time-sensitive," he said.
"This reached a peak in the last week based on all of the publicity
around this, combined with a bunch of people who are fans spreading the
word."
Entertainment
fans, he added, are notorious for such movements, pointing to the buzz
that surrounded "Chuck" and "Jericho." The latter movement actually got
the show put back on the air.
"The problem is that these
movements tend to have a core of extremely active, engaged and
energetic people surrounded by millions of people who just caught the
virus," Bernoff said.
James Hibberd of the The Hollywood Reporter is confident that the fans will return en masse to their television sets in support of O'Brien -- at least at first.
"I
think that it's presumed that Team Coco will definitely be there for
his first week," Hibberd said. "When a show is launching, ending or if
there's a scandal, there's always significantly high ratings."
But, Hibberd added, that won't matter if the ratings can't be sustained. "Late night is always a marathon; it's not a sprint."
For Hibberd, O'Brien has done a good job sustaining the Coco fever thus far.
"The
current swell of viewers is driven to a large extent by circumstance,
but you have to give Conan some credit for capturing this audience
creatively. The show has felt looser and funnier like he was being more
himself lately. It signals to potential suitors that this guy could
potentially do better than he did before, because he wasn't quite
himself," Hibberd said.
O'Brien still hasn't made any
declarations about his future home. The Fox network, known for the kind
of risky humor that O'Brien does so well, has openly expressed
admiration. His success, Hibberd added, is really pegged to where he
goes.
"His success will be determined by how many ratings he'll
need. If he goes to Comedy Central, ratings like the ones he got from
'Tonight' would be huge. If he goes to Fox, with the affiliates, that's
going to be a much tighter race, especially if he's going up against
Letterman and Leno at the same time," he said.
What could
differentiate him from his competitors and help him retain his
audience, said marketing and branding expert Adam Hanft, is to do the
opposite of what NBC needed: keep his edge nice and sharp.
"He
has a target, and we're living in a world of niche marketing," Hanft
said. "The worst thing for him would be to broaden his audience. Gen X
and Gen Y are very large markets, and together they're bigger than the
boomers."
Yet no matter how passionate those fans seem, Bernoff said, O'Brien definitely shouldn't turn to them for advice.
"If
you have a product and you want to know what ways you might improve it,
then you can use social networks. If you're coming up with something
new that people have never seen before, you can't. It won't work
because they don't [have a concept for] what it is," he said.
But
even if he can't rely on the #ImWithCoco Twitter feed for feedback, the
Web gives O'Brien a shot at keeping the momentum going that he wouldn't
have had in the past.
"If it was a different media environment,
he couldn't do it. The Internet allows him to communicate directly
through Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. He can create content -- his own
version of 'The Daily Show' if he wants to," Hanft said.
"I don't think it's going to be difficult for him," he added. "The question isn't if he can manage to keep the fans, it's how."